How the Banco Master scandal injected chaos into Brazil’s presidential race

Ao vivo Clique aqui para pesquisarPesquisarInscreva-se Como o escândalo do Banco Master moldou a corrida presidencial no Brasil O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva está em uma disputa acirrada contra o senador de direita Flávio Bolsonaro.

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No domingo, os eleitores brasileiros irão às urnas para a primeira fase da votação presidencial do país.

Centre-left incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, is currently the frontrunner. He is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, after previously leading the country from 2003 to 2011.

Seu principal adversário é o senador de extrema-direita Flávio Bolsonaro, 45 anos, filho mais velho do ex‑presidente Jair Bolsonaro, que está cumprindo uma sentença de 27 anos de prisão por tentativa de golpe alegada.

The two candidates are locked in a neck-and-neck race. But both have faced fallout from the Banco Master scandal, a sprawling financial scheme that has cast a shadow over Brazil's political sphere.

He pointed to the high levels of rejection Brazilian voters have expressed for both candidates.

In late September, the pollster Quaest found that 56 percent of respondents said they would refuse to vote for Bolsonaro. About 54 percent said the same about Lula.

Um fator no desencanto generalizado tem sido o escândalo do Banco Master. O emaranhado financeiro entregou um olho negro a ambos os extremos do espectro político brasileiro.

A range of business leaders, political figures, regulators and judges have been swept up in the scandal.

Um banco de médio porte, Banco Master, cresceu agressivamente na última década ao vender certificados de depósito de alto rendimento. Alguns desses certificados ofereciam retornos de até 140% em relação à taxa interbancária de referência do Brasil.

But Banco Master did not have the assets needed to sustain that output.

It lacked the money to pay back its risky loans, and what assets it did have were diverted to shell accounts, according to prosecutors.

Brazil's Central Bank ultimately liquidated Banco Master in 2025, as the lender faced a major funding squeeze.

Seu dono, Daniel Vorcaro, foi posteriormente preso, acusado de uma série de crimes financeiros, incluindo lavagem de dinheiro e fraude.

Investigators have suggested that Vorcaro protected his fraud scheme by cultivating influence among power brokers among Brazil's elite.

Entre os envolvidos no escândalo está o senador Flávio Bolsonaro, candidato à presidência.

Last month, the Supreme Court unsealed documents showing he is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering in connection with Vorcaro.

Gravações de áudio também surgiram, parecendo mostrar Bolsonaro solicitando ao líder bancário escandalizado milhões em financiamento. O dinheiro estava previsto como financiamento para Dark Horse, um filme sobre seu pai preso, Jair Bolsonaro.

Flavio Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing. He described the interaction as a private sponsorship opportunity, unrelated to the Banco Master scandal.

A greater association with the left.

But while Bolsonaro appears to have direct ties to the scandal, polling suggests that left-wing campaigns like Lula's may suffer more.

In September, the polling institute Datafolha released a survey that found 34 percent of respondents associated the Banco Master scandal more with left-wing politicians than with any other kind of political leaning.

Apenas 27% acreditavam que envolvia mais políticos de direita.

Another 13 percent associated the scandal with politicians of all stripes, and 16 percent said they did not know how to answer the question.

Leonardo Paz, cientista político da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), think tank, disse que a mídia brasileira compartilha parte da culpa pela percepção pública do escândalo.

He argues that the news coverage created a false equivalency between Lula's involvement and Bolsonaro's.

Lula has not been directly linked to the Banco Master scandal.

But revelations have emerged regarding Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a frequent target of right-wing criticism.

Earlier this year, a rival justice released a document purporting to show Vorcaro composing messages to de Moraes, in some cases asking for legal advice.

De Moraes has denied exchanging any messages with the banker. He has also called the accusations an "incriminating farce for political and electoral purposes.

The justice was appointed to the court in 2017, under then-President Michel Temer, a centre-right figure. But in recent years, de Moraes played an instrumental role in blocking Jair Bolsonaro's attempts to overturn his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election.

De Moraes ultimately oversaw the criminal case that landed the elder Bolsonaro in prison. Bolsonaro's right-wing allies have called that case a political "witch hunt", accusing de Moraes of being beholden to Lula.

Quem vota em Lula vota em Alexandre de Moraes," disse Flavio Bolsonaro no circuito de campanha este ano.

Pereira, the Latin American studies director at Tulane, explained that some members of the public have conflated Lula and de Moraes as a result of the prosecution.

Flavio Bolsonaro has successfully leveraged that perception, Pereira added.

With Brazil's presidential race expected to be tight, experts warn that even small fluctuations in voter intent could affect the outcome.

Nenhum dos dois, Bolsonaro nem Lula, deve ultrapassar o limiar de 50% necessário para evitar uma segunda volta em 25 de outubro.

Jorge Chaloub, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said the race may ultimately come down to the voters currently backing other candidates.

Also in the running are self-help author Augusto Cury and right-wing figures Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Romeu Zema.

Juntos, eles estão sendo avaliados em pouco mais de 10 % de apoio. Os endossos deles para a segunda volta podem acabar decidindo a eleição, segundo Chaloub.

But, he added, the scandal-plagued race has been volatile so far. Chaloub warned that voters looking for right-wing alternatives may not ultimately side with Bolsonaro, should a run-off occur.