Trump backs Netanyahu: Is the US planning a new Iran attack with Israel?

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• list 1 of 3US President Donald Trump endorses Netanyahu for Israeli election.
• list 2 of 3The kingmakers who could determine Israel’s election.
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Polícia israelense prende 10 após ataques de colonos a jornalista e diplomatas.

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Trump’s endorsement comes after he had previously shied away from fully backing Netanyahu’s election campaign.

Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Sunday that Netanyahu had been a “great warrior prime minister and an even greater partner for peace”, adding that Iran had been “systematically destroyed both militarily and financially, and unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job.”.

The president added that normal men and women would have “wilted” under the pressure that Netanyahu was under, but the Israeli prime minister “got stronger”.

The Israeli election will be on October 27 . According to Israeli news outlet Haaretz’s tracker, as of Sunday, the opposition alliance led by the Yashar party of Gadi Eisenkot is expected to win the most seats, at 52, with Netanyahu’s Likud party-led coalition taking 51 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

So far, no party is projected to secure an outright majority.

Earlier this month, when asked twice by TIME magazine if Netanyahu should be given another term, Trump pivoted to his own popularity in Israel and Washington’s actions supporting Israel.

When asked whether he trusted Netanyahu, Trump replied, “I don’t trust anybody, honestly”.

Still, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East North Africa programme at the British think tank Chatham House, explained that Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu was “politically significant” because it comes after months of tension between the two leaders.

Andreas Krieg, professor sênior da Escola de Estudos de Segurança do King's College London, disse que o apoio de Trump foi um “presente político” para Netanyahu, cuja campanha eleitoral está em dificuldades.

But like Vakil, he cautioned against treating Trump’s endorsement as a game-changer.

O que a aprovação significa para a guerra no Irã

Grande parte do endosso de Trump tem sido fortemente focado na guerra com o Irã, em um momento em que muitos analistas sugerem que o presidente dos US pode estar buscando reiniciar ataques, antes ou depois das eleições de meio termo no início de novembro.

The conflict, which began in February after the US and Israel launched attacks across Iran, is currently at a standstill.

The Strait of Hormuz, which once transported 20 percent of global crude, was effectively shut by Iran after the war started. A US naval blockade of Iranian vessels followed, as each country struck ships passing through the waterway that they accused of not complying with its orders.

O tráfego de petróleo no mês passado pelo estreito voltou a atingir níveis pré‑guerra, enquanto a Marinha dos EUA guiava um número crescente de petroleiros. Mas uma série de ataques iranianos a embarcações no início deste mês novamente atingiu as exportações de petróleo bruto através de Hormuz.

Last month, Iran presented a proposal to Washington to reopen the waterway within seven days, but negotiations failed after the US did not address Tehran’s seven conditions, which included the lifting of sanctions and the ending of its naval blockade.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian media outlets on Sunday that the proposal remained on the table and, if Washington accepts Tehran’s conditions, the strait could reopen within six days, with talks resuming the following day.

At the same time, Araghchi, in a post on X on Sunday night, accused Netanyahu of wanting to restart attacks on Iran with the US to “stay out of jail”.

Krieg said Trump was prioritising the use of “coercive leverage” through his endorsement of Netanyahu but not necessarily “war over diplomacy”.

Vakil explained that, while Trump’s declaration of support for Netanyahu had signalled renewed political alignment with Israel and left the door open for future joint military action, it also makes it “harder for Trump to distance himself from the war or portray the US as having been reluctantly drawn into it”.

Vakil acrescentou que, para Tehran, a declaração reforçará a crença dos líderes iranianos de que há “pouca distinção significativa entre os objetivos dos EUA e dos israelenses”.

Meanwhile, while Trump has said that he would not attack Iran before the November midterms, several US media outlets have reported that the Pentagon has drawn up plans to relaunch attacks before voters head to the polls.

Last week, US news outlet Axios reported, citing both US and Israeli officials, that both Trump and Netanyahu had spoken about launching a major new operation against Iran ahead of the elections in both countries.

For Krieg, the likelihood that the US and Israel launch an attack on Iran remains low, assuming there is no Iranian strike that forces a response.

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