No clear mandate projected in Israel election: What’s next?

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President Isaac Herzog will task the strongest candidate with forming government once results are finalised.

The polls, released by the major Israeli television networks on Tuesday, indicated that the coalition led by current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party was on track to win 50 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, the Knesset.

The opposition bloc led by former Israeli military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to take 52 seats.

Isso poderia deixar nenhum dos blocos com os 61 assentos necessários para a maioria, preparando o cenário para semanas ou meses de disputa política para formar o próximo governo de Israel.

Separately, the Arab-led parties, which are not part of either coalition, were projected to win 18 seats. This means the Arab-led parties could emerge as kingmakers if other parties agree to join forces with them.

Eisenkot said the exit polls show a “lack of confidence” in Netanyahu, while Yair Lapid, the current opposition leader, said the prime minister’s bloc has suffered a “crushing defeat”.

He added, “This is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home.”.

Mas Gideon Saar, ministro das Relações Exteriores de Israel e membro do partido Likud de Netanyahu, disse que as celebrações da oposição eram prematuras.

In a social media post, he said: “Likud is the largest party in Israel. It is always good to learn something from the past.”.

Netanyahu, que lidera o Likud, tem servido como primeiro‑ministro por quase 19 dos últimos 30 anos e tem repetidamente sobrevivido a crises políticas.

Ehab Jabareen, a Palestinian political analyst and researcher in Israel, told Al Jazeera that the early exit poll projections show “a clear weakening of Netanyahu’s bloc” but expressed caution about “declaring either a Netanyahu victory or the end of his political career”.

Who will the president nominate to form a government.

Assim que o total final das votações for contabilizado em 4 de novembro, o presidente israelense Isaac Herzog conversará com os líderes partidários sobre quem eles desejam como primeiro‑ministro, e então escolherá o candidato que ele acredita ter a melhor chance de formar um governo.

That will not necessarily be the leader of the party that won the most seats in the Knesset.

With Netanyahu and Eisenkot’s parties emerging as the strongest, the two are viewed as leading contenders.

Quanto tempo o líder convidado terá para formar uma coalizão

Up to 42 days. The candidate initially has 28 days, but the president can extend it by 14 days.

Durante esse período, os partidos se engajavam em intensas negociações e acordos, buscando concessões políticas ou potenciais cargos ministeriais, enquanto o candidato designado tenta reunir apoio suficiente para governar.

If the candidate cannot assemble a coalition with at least 61 seats, they could also try to form a minority government by relying on support from smaller parties, or negotiate a power-sharing arrangement with alternating prime ministers.

To be sworn in, a new government must win a parliamentary confidence vote by a simple majority, which can be fewer than 61 votes if some parties abstain.

Se o primeiro candidato falhar em formar um governo, Herzog tem a opção de pedir a outro membro da Knesset que tente fazê-lo em até 28 dias. Se esse candidato também falhar, uma maioria dos membros da Knesset poderia apresentar um terceiro candidato, que teria um prazo final de 14 dias para tentar montar um.

If the Knesset remains at an impasse, it would be formally dissolved, and Israelis would return to the polls for another round of elections.

Those elections would have to be called within 90 days. In the meantime, Netanyahu’s government would remain in office as a caretaker government.

Prolonged gridlock in the Knesset forced Israelis into three rounds of elections between April 2019 and March 2020. The result was a power-sharing agreement between Netanyahu and his then-chief rival, Benny Gantz, under which they were supposed to rotate the premiership.

Esse governo colapsou um ano depois, após não conseguir aprovar um orçamento.

Will the opposition form a coalition with the Arab-led parties.

Enquanto as pesquisas de saída sugerem que os partidos liderados pelos árabes poderiam se tornar formadores de governo, tanto Netanyahu quanto Eisenkot descartaram a possibilidade de parceria com esses partidos, citando falta de valores compartilhados.

Asaf Ronel, an Israeli political analyst, said that while exit polls suggest an end to Netanyahu’s “nightmarish government”, there are serious questions if other leaders can overcome their “racism and refusal” to collaborate with the Arab-led groups.

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