The domestic armed threat facing Iran

Ao vivo Clique aqui para pesquisarClique aqui para pesquisarInscreva-seNavegação menu seta-esquerda seta-direitaNotícias|Guerra EUA-Israel contra o IrãA ameaça armada interna enfrentada pelo IrãO apoio externo a grupos armados étnicos representa uma ameaça de segurança crescente ao Irã, alertam especialistas e autoridades estaduais.

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They have endeavoured to frame the war as a national security struggle while sending a message of control and deterrence to audiences inside the country and abroad.

In one of the latest instances, state media said on Sunday that members of an eight-member network allegedly affiliated with “anti-revolutionary” and “pro-monarchy” groups were arrested.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the southern province of Fars accused those arrested of using Molotov cocktails and burning tyres during nationwide protests in January.

Os líderes da República Islâmica do Irã, nas últimas semanas, também manifestaram preocupação com a possibilidade de novos protestos, enquanto o descontentamento público cresce diante de condições econômicas em declínio.

During Iran’s January protests and on social media, a number of Iranians have expressed support for the return of the country’s monarchy, which was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Reza Pahlavi, the foreign-based son of Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has been a leading opponent of the country’s government, and in January called on Iranians to join nationwide strikes and protests.

Thousands are believed to have been killed during the unrest.

Mas, embora haja episódios de cânticos em apoio ao Pahlavi no Irã, atualmente não existem grupos armados pró‑monarquia organizados de grande porte operando dentro do país.

E, enquanto múltiplas manifestações em todo o país têm varrido o Irã nos últimos anos, elas têm sido em grande parte motivadas por protestos contra as queixas econômicas e a repressão no país, em vez de apoio à monarquia.

O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, assim como o primeiro‑ministro de Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, discutiram abertamente o objetivo de derrubar o Estado iraniano durante os primeiros meses da guerra, que começou no final de fevereiro.

Calls for the monarchy to replace the Islamic Republic have been particularly prominent in demonstrations outside of Iran.

The Iranian government has since then announced a large number of arrests of people it says are supporters of the monarchy.

That has included 111 so-called “monarchist cells” arrested across 26 provinces, as announced on March 18 by the Intelligence Ministry.

Autoridades iranianas consideram os protestos de janeiro um “coup” orquestrado por agentes armados dos EUA e de Israel, incluindo pró-monárquicos.

As Nações Unidas e grupos internacionais de direitos humanos condenaram as forças estatais pela “brutalidade” exibida durante a repressão a manifestantes.

The judiciary has executed dozens of prisoners since the start of the war, including some of those who protested in January. Numerous students, artists, businesspeople, journalists, healthcare workers and others have also been arrested over recent months for acts perceived by the authorities to be against national security.

What are the main armed groups in Iran.

Fuzileiros curdos ativos próximos às fronteiras ocidentais do Irã com o Iraque são a maior ameaça armada não estatal do país.

Vários grupos, designados como “terroristas” pelas autoridades iranianas, têm se baseado na região semiautônoma curda do norte do Iraque há anos.

Iran’s military forces have attacked bases operated by these groups in Iraq in recent years, while also pursuing security deals with the Iraqi government to contain them.

At the start of this year’s war, the Kurdish armed groups were considered by the Trump administration to lead a limited ground operation in western Iran to complement extensive air strikes by US and Israeli fighter jets and warships.

The Reuters news agency reported in early March that roughly 5,000-8,000 Iranian Kurdish fighters from groups including the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), and Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) were preparing for a potential cross-border operation and had held discussions with US and Israeli representatives.

Mas os grupos disseram que não tinham armamento suficiente e não receberam um sinal claro de Washington para iniciar a operação. O plano não foi colocado em ação, e em abril o IRGC havia enviado mais tropas para as províncias fronteiriças.

Trump later repeatedly claimed that he had supplied arms to Kurdish forces, but that they had kept the weapons for themselves.

Aside from the Kurdish forces, Iran’s disenfranchised and restive southeastern border areas are also home to separatist Baloch fighters.

Em final de agosto, as forças de segurança disseram que haviam desmantelado uma célula pertencente ao Jaish al‑Adl, o mais proeminente dos grupos armados baloches.

Um combatente rebelde foi relatado como morto, seis foram presos, e rifles, lançadores de granadas e explosivos foram apreendidos.

But sporadic attacks from the group have been ongoing, at times killing police officers and IRGC figures.

Iranian authorities have said they will continue to bolster border control in order to limit exposure to armed groups amid the war.

Alex Vatanka, pesquisador sênior do Middle East Institute com sede em Washington, disse que o apoio externo aos grupos rebeldes curdos e baloch pode aumentar o desafio de segurança enfrentado pelas autoridades.

For his part, Trita Parsi, the Quincy Institute’s co-founder, said that while separatist militias don’t pose an existential threat to the government, they “may prove tremendously problematic for Tehran if the war with the US escalates after the mid-terms and the US decides, for instance, to deploy ground troops”.

Washington encourages internal pressure.

Durante as protestas de janeiro, Trump e outros funcionários dos EUA apoiaram os manifestantes iranianos e disseram que eles deveriam continuar agindo com o objetivo de derrubar a República Islâmica.

Similar rhetoric from Washington has been heard since the start of the war.

Last week, Trump discussed the possibility that the pressure from war, sanctions and a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports could ultimately lead to an internal uprising, or even the fall of the establishment.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the pressure could prompt Iranians to take to the streets again, or even create divisions within the IRGC.