El Nino: A phenomenon supercharged by climate change

ONU alerta que El Niño pode ser “off the charts”, o mais forte em décadas.

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These small fish usually live in colossal shoals along the Pacific coast of South America, feeding in the cold, nutrient-rich waters. Fishermen in Peru and Chile eagerly await the fishing season every year, but every now and then, it does not come as planned.

Alguns anos os ventos alísios leste no Pacífico enfraquecem ou até mesmo se invertem. O gatilho para isso permanece incerto, mas causa uma corrente oceânica quente a fluir para leste até a costa da América do Sul.

This replaces the nutrient-rich cold water, causing the anchovies to disappear.

Como as águas quentes chegam por volta do Natal, os pescadores peruanos chamaram o fenômeno de El Niño de Navidad (O Filho de Natal).

The impact of El Nino, a natural weather pattern, spreads much further than South America, and can bring drought or floods to millions in affected areas. This year it comes supercharged by climate change, which is worrying many scientists, governments and aid workers.

Stephanie Roe, lead climate scientist with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), told Al Jazeera that this “super El Nino” is a stark reminder of how climate change can intensify pressures on both people and the natural world.

À medida que se desenvolve no Pacífico, o El Niño deste ano está se combinando com uma onda de calor marinho massiva em curso, aumentando ainda mais os impactos do aquecimento global causado pelo homem.

Its effects will be felt through food systems and biodiversity, impacting the livelihoods of fishermen and farmers, and the billions around the world reliant on the agricultural industry for their food.

O desenvolvimento do El Nino está sendo monitorado de perto tanto do espaço quanto do mar, utilizando satélites e uma rede de bóias. Os dispositivos no Oceano Pacífico transmitem continuamente dados sobre temperaturas oceânicas, correntes e ventos, ajudando os cientistas a avaliar quão poderoso o evento pode se tornar.

Indications currently suggest the 2026-27 El Nino could be the strongest on record.

Research by the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather and climate service, shows that a typical El Nino episode leads to temperature rises of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

But projections now indicate that when El Nino fully bites in late 2026 or early 2027, temperatures could spike by 3C.

Os cientistas sabem que o clima nunca é certo, mas um El Niño intensificado pelo aquecimento global anuncia problemas. O Secretário‑Geral das Nações Unidas, Antonio Guterres, comparou isso a “pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world”.

The effects will be felt by billions across the world, bringing droughts to some regions and severe flooding to others. In some cases, it can bring both.

Southeast Asia and South America will be particularly badly affected by this phenomenon, according to Carbon Brief, a United Kingdom-based website specialising in climate issues.

There might be drought in Southern Africa, but flooding in the east of the continent. El Nino could also bring extreme heat that would weaken summer monsoons, leading to drought.

De acordo com a Secretária‑Geral da Organização Meteorológica Mundial (WMO) Celeste Saulo, este super El Niño exige preparação e resposta excepcionais. “Nunca antes na história de 50 anos da WMO lançamos tal mobilização maciça entregando previsões e serviços para salvar vidas e meios de subsistência,” disse ela.

El Ninos can reduce the number and size of Atlantic hurricanes and provide welcome rainfall to drought-stricken areas. Models indicate that the peak will be from December to February, which coincides with the main planting season and crop-development period in South America.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley said that wetter conditions could benefit agricultural yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, but other parts of Brazil might face more irregular rainfall and delayed planting.

Overall, the outlook is grim, with crop failures caused by El Nino and the climate crisis rippling through supply chains and leading to billions of dollars in damage to the global economy.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that El Nino could hit as global food systems face systemic challenges due to high energy and fertiliser prices, brought about by the United States’ war on Iran.

The United Nations agency forecasts that 274 million people will be facing acute hunger by the end of 2027, an increase of 49 million from current levels.

Outbreaks of disease, like malaria and dengue fever, could be another consequence, particularly in places where sanitation and health systems are already under pressure.

John Nairn, WMO’s senior extreme heat adviser, said extreme heat is the most direct concern.

It is also feared that the compounding effects of El Nino will put highly stressed ecosystems under more pressure.

In the Pacific region, the loss of baitfish, including anchovies and sardines, is having a knock-on effect up the food chain and could cause deaths among seals and sea lions.

Thousands of seabirds have also already washed up dead on Eastern Pacific coasts from California to Ecuador.

And perhaps most alarming of all for scientists is the likely increase in global temperatures.

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