Why governors’ races are important in the 2026 US midterms

Tudo o que você precisa saber sobre as eleições intermediárias dos EUA em 2026.

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Trump diz que respeitará os resultados das eleições de meio de mandato dos EUA se as eleições forem ‘honestas’.

Mas as corridas estaduais-chave também estão em andamento, com consequências de longo alcance para o futuro do país.

This year, 36 US states will vote for their next governor, the most powerful elected official in state government.

An unusually high proportion of those races centre on open seats, with no incumbent governor on the ballot seeking re-election.

In 19 of the races, the current officeholder is either term-limited, like California Democrat Gavin Newsom, or voluntarily opted to not run again, like Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds.

Esta histórica mudança cria a possibilidade de vários estados assumirem transformações significativas na liderança.

Governadores atuam como chefes executivos de seus estados, supervisionando os departamentos e agências governamentais responsáveis pela entrega de serviços públicos.

Their powers vary by state. In general, governors propose budgets, appoint senior state officials, direct state agencies about how to enforce existing law, and issue executive orders.

They can also choose to sign into law bills passed by their state’s legislature — or veto them.

Uma das áreas de influência mais visíveis é os direitos reprodutivos. Desde que o Supremo Tribunal dos EUA decidiu em 2022 que não há direito constitucional ao acesso ao aborto, os governos estaduais têm desempenhado um papel central na determinação de se o procedimento é legal.

Cada estado agora pode regular o aborto dentro de seus limites, e 13 legislaturas estaduais já aprovaram proibições completas ou quase totais de aborto.

But the Guttmacher Institute, a US-based reproductive rights organisation, noted that about a dozen governors have issued executive orders to “mitigate” the harm done by such bans.

Governors can also influence how US elections are administered.

In some states, governors appoint the officials responsible for overseeing elections, while in others, those officials are elected independently. Governors may also sign or veto legislation changing voting rules, giving them significant influence over election administration.

Governadores também ajudam a moldar a forma como os estados respondem ao governo federal.

They may challenge federal policies in court or negotiate with Washington over funding and programme requirements.

Governos estaduais também desempenham um papel importante na implementação de programas financiados federalmente, tornando a cooperação entre governadores e a Casa Branca importante.

One example came after former US President Barack Obama’s landmark healthcare policy, the Affordable Care Act, passed the US Congress in 2010.

No pós-efeito de sua aprovação, muitos governadores estavam em posição de decidir se seus estados adotaram a expansão do Affordable Care Act para o Medicaid, um programa de seguro para famílias de baixa renda.

Some governors, like Steve Beshear of Kentucky and Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia, issued executive orders in 2013 to adopt Medicaid expansion without their legislatures’ approval.

Others, like Florida’s then-Governor Rick Scott, opposed Medicaid expansion and directed their state legislatures not to adopt it. Scott, who now serves as a US senator for the state, later dropped his opposition, but the Republican-led Florida legislature did not take up a bill to agree to the expansion.

Como chefes executivos de seus estados, os governadores têm uma plataforma única para mostrar seus talentos políticos.

Many use the governor’s mansion to catapult to the nation’s highest office, the presidency.

Pelo menos 17 ex‑presidentes dos EUA – incluindo Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton e George W. Bush – foram governadores antes de ocuparem a Casa Branca.

But some governors find their presidential ambitions thwarted by backlash to their state-level policies.

The Eagleton Institute of Politics estimates that only 53 percent of the presidential nominees who were previously governors were ultimately victorious in their races.

During the 2016 presidential election cycle, for instance, the governor of New Jersey at the time, Chris Christie, hoped to secure the Republican Party’s nomination.

Ele desistiu da corrida em fevereiro daquele ano, no entanto, em meio a críticas a várias ações realizadas durante sua governadoria.

His administration in New Jersey was still reeling from a scandal known as “Bridgegate”, which concerned accusations that a major roadway was closed to punish the mayor of a nearby city.

And some Republicans denounced the way Christie had greeted Obama, a Democrat, when he visited New Jersey during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.

As eleições de meio de mandato deste ano devem preparar o cenário para a eleição presidencial de 2028.

Several outgoing governors are among the likely hopefuls. Newsom, who has served as California’s governor since 2019, is prevented from running for a third term this year.

Em vez disso, ele é amplamente especulado como um líder em potencial para a nomeação democrática em 2028, tendo se estabelecido como um crítico vocal do presidente republicano Donald Trump.

Several other potential Democratic contenders are also locked in re-election campaigns this midterm cycle that could serve as previews for future presidential bids.

They include Wes Moore of Maryland and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.

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