UK poised to miss reduced aid spending target of 0.3% of national income

People queue for food aid in February during severe drought conditions in Kenya. Photograph: Patrick Ngugi/APView image in fullscreenPeople queue for food aid in February during severe drought conditions in Kenya.

• Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Photograph: Patrick Ngugi/APForeign policyUK poised to miss reduced aid spending target of 0. 3% of national income Calculations from the Center for Global Development say spending next year is likely to be £410m less than anticipated.

Prefer the Guardian on GoogleThe UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0. 3% of national income on international aid by an estimated £400m by the end of next year.

Cálculos do Center for Global Development (CGD) descobriram que o UK estava no caminho para um grande déficit na assistência oficial ao desenvolvimento prometida até o final de 2027.

Os pesquisadores disseram que a previsão central da comparação de especialistas independentes do Tesouro implicava que a ajuda do Reino Unido seria £410 milhões a menos do que o previsto – com apenas 0.

However, they said it was “very plausible” that the shortfall would be £580m, at only 0. 28% of national income. Even the most conservative forecast implies a £250m shortfall, according to the estimates.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, described these as “material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid”.

Making up a shortfall of even £400m would be enough to halve cuts to Africa that are likely to cost thousands of lives and mean the UK’s de facto exit from the south and east of the continent, he said.

Read moreThe CGD attributed the shortfall to higher than expected inflation, which means national income will be higher than forecast at the spending review, and a 2025 policy change around the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) budget.

Os pesquisadores pediram aos ministros que considerassem destinar recursos adicionais à ajuda internacional no orçamento desta semana, para evitar a vergonha e a crítica por não atingir a meta.

The 0. 3% spending target for 2027 is far below the 0. 7% promised in Labour’s election manifesto, having been downgraded by Keir Starmer to boost spending on defence.

Fleur Anderson, a former minister who sits on the foreign affairs select committee, said she would like to see higher spending on development aid in the budget.

Ela disse: “Gostaria de ver este governo avançar ainda mais e reverter esses cortes de forma total ao longo do tempo, mas, no mínimo, devemos atingir a meta reduzida que foi estabelecida.”.

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Organizações de caridade têm afirmado repetidamente que os cortes profundos de ajuda do governo afetarão a educação infantil e aumentarão o risco de doenças e mortes em alguns países africanos.

The latest figures released by the FCDO in September showed that British aid cuts under Starmer’s government hit the world’s poorest countries the hardest, while higher-income countries’ share of aid increased.

The data showed a 6. 7% decrease in funding to the least-developed and low-income countries, amounting to cuts of £118m.

The UK’s overall official development assistance (ODA) budget in 2025 decreased to 0. 44% of gross national income, compared with 0. 5% in 2024, a drop of £987m.

O governo priorizou os gastos por meio de agências multilaterais como o braço de desenvolvimento do Banco Mundial, a International Development Association e a iniciativa global de vacinas Gavi.

Ele também continuou a financiar apoio humanitário.

The Conservative party and Reform UK have pledged to slash aid even further, from about £9bn a year to £1bn – a level that would leave the UK unable to cover existing contributions to the UN and World Bank.

An FCDO spokesperson said: “The publication of the FCDO multi-year ODA allocations in March 2026 set out our spending plans and priorities for the next three financial years based on GNI [gross national income] at the time of the 2025 spending review.