How could Israel break election deadlock? Here are four scenarios

Fonte da imagem, AFP via Getty ImagesLegenda da imagem, Nem Gadi Eisenkot (esquerda) nem Benjamin Netanyahu (direita) são projetados para ganhar assentos suficientes para uma maioria.

• How Arab parties could hold critical balance of power in Israeli electionPublished6 days ago.

Israel looks to be in political deadlock.

With 85% of votes counted after Tuesday's election, neither the incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, nor the bloc of his key challenger Gadi Eisenkot look set to have a majority.

Para formar um governo, parece provável que um dos principais partidos tenha que quebrar suas promessas de campanha — significando que o resultado mais provável pode bem ser novas eleições.

National unity government led by Netanyahu.

Netanyahu poderia persuadir Eisenkot a se juntar a ele em um governo de unidade nacional.

Eisenkot would have to abandon his key platform to do so. He's framed himself as the only alternative to Netanyahu, and built his campaign on ousting him from power.

Just last night, he took to the stage at his campaign HQ and called on Netanyahu to "announce his retirement from political life today," telling the crowd that Israelis are fed up with Netanyahu's "culture of lies", "division and incitement.

Mas isso foi antes de uma das principais pesquisas de saída — que inicialmente projetou uma vantagem para o bloco de Eisenkot — ser revisada, e ele foi ultrapassado por Netanyahu.

Netanyahu could try to persuade Eisenkot's Yashar Party to join his Likud Party in a unity government by ditching the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties he is currently in coalition with.

But last night at Likud HQ he thanked his "loyal partners" and called for a "strong right-wing government"- remarks some have interpreted as meaning he intends to preserve his alliance with them.

Uma coisa que poderia tornar mais provável um governo de unidade é um conflito renovado com o Irã, que poderia colocar pressão séria sobre os líderes partidários para deixarem de lado suas diferenças políticas e trabalharem juntos.

In the days prior to the election, Israeli and US media reported that Netanyahu was pushing for fresh strikes on the country, and had pressed Donald Trump to approve US involvement.

Isso, sem dúvida, seria enquadrado pelos críticos de Netanyahu como uma tentativa de salvar sua própria pele política entrando em mais um conflito regional.

Coalizão liderada por Eisenkot com partidos árabes

This would be a seismic shift for Israeli politics. Only one independent Arab party has ever formally been part of a coalition, in 2021, and it didn't last long.

Eisenkot e todos os outros partidos judeus em seu bloco, exceto um, já descartaram entrar no governo com eles. Mas, no momento, é o único caminho da oposição para a maioria.

The Arab parties were the story of election night. They look to have defied expectations and could gain a record 19 seats - helped by an unprecedented turnout from Israel's Arab population, who account for about one-fifth of the country and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Durante anos, muitos boicotaram as eleições israelenses, dizendo que votar legitima um sistema que, segundo eles, os trata como cidadãos de segunda classe. Mas a participação deles na noite passada, inspirada pelo desejo de destituir a coalizão governante mais à direita da história de Israel, abalou tudo.

The United Arab list, who are currently projected to win around 7 seats, have said they'd join an opposition government, while The Joint List, who are projected to win 12 seats, have said they'd support one from outside.

However, the only Jewish leader advocating this scenario right now is The Democrats' Yair Golan. And a coalition like this would be very fragile, especially on issues like Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

The fact there is such a unified front from the Jewish parties against Arab participation points to Israel's deep divisions.

Maioria comandada por Netanyahu, com conservadores da oposição.

Could Netanyahu persuade the right-wing parties in Eisenkot's bloc to break away and join his coalition.

The two most likely candidates for this are Naftali Bennett - joint-leader of the Beyachad political alliance - and Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party.

Eles são ambos de direita, têm postura dura em relação à segurança e compartilham algum terreno político com Netanyahu.

But both campaigned explicitly to oust him, and to extend military conscription to the ultra-Orthodox - bringing them into direct conflict with the two ultra-Orthodox parties already part of Netanyahu's government.

Alguns sugeriram que os partidos de Bennett e Lieberman poderiam substituir os partidos ultraortodoxos, mas a matemática eleitoral atual sugere que esse agrupamento pode não ter os assentos necessários para uma maioria.

If none of the above scenarios can be negotiated, the default outcome would be new elections.

Many would see this as a tacit win for Netanyahu, who would remain as caretaker PM until the new elections take place - which he may believe he has a better chance of winning.

Além disso, vários partidos de direita que não conseguiram ultrapassar o limiar eleitoral de 3. 25% podem atrair menos votos ou nem sequer disputar, trazendo assim mais votos para o Likud e seus aliados.

Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as Netanyahu and his rivals struggled time and again to co-operate.

Israeli exit polls suggest no clear winner in pivotal general election.

A amarga disputa sobre o serviço militar que pode moldar o futuro de Israel.

Israel's far right find fertile ground among first-time voters.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot face difficult paths to power as neither set to win majority.