Developing El Niño becomes strongest on record weeks before expected peak

Image source, Anadolou/Getty ImagesImage caption, Wildfires fuelled by El Niño are affecting around 12. 5 million people across Indonesia, according to the country's health ministry.

1. El Niño set to be 'strongest in living memory', says Met OfficePublished21 August.
2. Stormy autumn, cold winter - how might El Niño affect the UK weather?Published3 September.
3. What is El Niño and why could it mean record temperatures.

O fenômeno climático El Niño em desenvolvimento é agora o mais forte registrado, segundo cientistas que monitoram as temperaturas do Oceano Pacífico.

Daily sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific were 3. 05C above average on 19 September - exceeding the previous record of 3. 02C set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.

Some longer-term measures of El Niño have not yet hit record levels but this is likely to change, with the peak not expected until later this year.

El Niño can cause major shifts in weather patterns around the world, with the Met Office saying many of the expected impacts are already being felt.

What is El Niño and how is it measured.

El Niño é um padrão de ocorrência natural, que acontece a cada dois a sete anos e tende a durar cerca de um ano.

Ventos alísios que normalmente sopram do leste para o oeste sobre o Oceano Pacífico podem enfraquecer ou até mesmo reverter, permitindo que a água quente se espalhe para o leste.

Heat is then released from the ocean into the atmosphere which can boost global temperatures and drive changes in weather patterns around the world.

Os meteorologistas acompanham o desenvolvimento do El Niño observando as temperaturas em uma região chave do Oceano Pacífico. Quando essas temperaturas ficam consistentemente 0,5 °C acima da média, um El Niño é declarado.

There are different ways of measuring the strength of El Niño, however.

This is called the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

Many scientists - including forecasters in the USA and Australia - also consider an alternative measure known as the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).

Segundo o índice RONI, o atual El Niño ainda não quebra recordes - mas é provável que mais anúncios venham nas próximas semanas.

Temos sinalizado há meses que o El Niño em desenvolvimento será um evento sem precedentes.

The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño.

Impactos do El Niño já sendo sentidos globalmente.

Every El Niño is different, therefore impacts on global weather patterns are not guaranteed.

And the unprecedented strength of this El Niño does not necessarily mean it will have unprecedented impacts on the weather.

Professor Scaife disse: “Os cientistas ainda estão avaliando se os impactos serão proporcionais à sua magnitude, mas já estamos vendo efeitos esperados em todo o mundo.”.

El Niño increases the odds of storms and floods in some regions and of drought and wildfires in others.

Figure caption, Watch: How does El Niño affect world weather.

Os anos de El Niño tendem a trazer chuvas de monção abaixo da média na Índia, o que já está sendo refletido nos dados deste ano.

Statistics from the India Meteorological Department show that, until 22 September the southwest monsoon had brought 15% less rain than normal.

Another typical impact of El Niño is reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to changes in wind patterns high in the atmosphere.

Até agora, em 2026, não houve furacões no Atlântico, estabelecendo um novo recorde para a data mais recente sem a formação de um furacão desde que o monitoramento por satélite das tempestades começou.

Outros possíveis efeitos — alguns dos quais já estão sendo sentidos — incluem o aumento do risco de inundações nas regiões costeiras do Equador, Peru e do sul dos USA, e a intensificação da ameaça de seca e incêndios florestais no Brasil, Austrália e Indonésia.

These weather impacts can have significant knock on effects for on crop yields, food security and economies around the globe.

Will there be an impact on UK weather? The UK is thousands of miles from the tropical Pacific and so the effects of El Niño tend to be less clear-cut than in other regions.

However, it does bring the increased chance of wet and stormy conditions across north-west Europe during the late autumn and early winter.

Uma previsão divulgada pelo Met Office neste outono afirmou que já havia 'sinais de aumento de precipitação e tempestades neste outono aqui no UK', especialmente em novembro e dezembro.

The winter of 2015 and 2016, which coincided with a very strong El Niño, brought a succession of major storms delivering what experts at the time described as the most extreme flooding on record.

In addition to storminess, El Niño can also be associated with UK cold spells in the late winter - but the link is not a strong one and the past evidence is mixed.

O chamado Big Freeze do inverno de 2009/2010 foi, na época, o mais frio em três décadas - e isso coincidiu com um El Niño.

However, 2006/2007 was also an El Niño winter and that was unseasonably warm.

As this unprecedented El Niño approaches its likely peak towards the end of 2026, scientists will continue to monitor its development - and its impact on weather around the world.

Will El Niño bring winter snow to the UK.

Summer 2026 was UK's hottest on record, Met Office says.