Deeply divided Israel braces for pivotal election

Figure caption, Watch: Why Israel's election is one of the most important in its history.

1. Israel's far right find fertile ground among first-time voters.

Como funcionam as eleições em Israel e quem são os principais candidatos? Publicado há 6 horas.

A amarga disputa sobre o serviço militar que pode moldar o futuro de Israel.

After three years of regional war, this is a battle Israel always knew was coming.

A eleição geral de terça-feira paira sobre um país profundamente dividido e pronto para a batalha.

Polls published on Friday put the governing coalition and the main opposition bloc almost neck-and-neck, with half a million first-time voters due to cast their ballot and some 70,000 Israelis reportedly flying in from abroad specifically to vote.

Na noite de sábado, vastas multidões de eleitores da oposição reuniram-se no centro de Tel Aviv para exigir uma mudança de governo.

We're optimistic," 21-year-old Omri told me. "I want peace, I want security, and I want to end corruption and get the religious fanatics out.

This campaign has been energized by new tactics - including AI videos designed to grab the headlines - and also by a new face.

Gadi Eisenkot é, talvez, não o homem que você esperaria que assumisse a marca chamativa, agressiva e experiente em mídia do primeiro‑ministro com mais tempo de mandato de Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Relatively new to politics, with a working-class Moroccan background, Eisenkot is a former military chief of staff who is renowned for his calm manner and low-drama approach.

He's been dubbed by some as a "non-politician.

Mas ele e seu partido centrista Yashar têm regularmente superado Netanyahu e seu partido Likud na posição de topo nas pesquisas recentes, a última das quais foi publicada na sexta‑feira, de acordo com a lei eleitoral israelense.

Israeli politics is the art of coalition-building, rather than the task of any one party winning power, but with the predicted result too close to call, Eisenkot's rising profile has sharpened a race many Israelis already see as existential for the future of their country.

I watched him slip past the cameras at a community centre for Ethiopian Jews in the city of Ramle last week, through a gaggle of security personnel and advisors.

Um dos que veio ouvi-lo falar era David, homem bem vestido, com camisa recém‑passada e jaqueta azul marinho, que afirmou ter conhecido Eisenkot antes.

He looks you in the eye, not like a leader looking down at someone," David told me. "And he listens. He's very sympathetic.

Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Eisenkot's image as a "non-politician" has proved popular.

O apelo de Eisenkot costuma ser atribuído à sua maneira pessoal e ao seu perfil. Um homem militar de fala suave cujo filho foi morto durante a Guerra de Gaza, ele se apresentou como vindo “da periferia”, não da elite urbana rica de Israel.

His Moroccan background became election headlines earlier this month when a pro-Netanyahu speaker used a racist slur to refer to Eisenkot during a TV debate, referring to him as a Moroccan "monkey.

These elections are about many issues," Eisenkot told the crowd gathered at the Ramle community centre. "They are about security, economy, education...but primarily, they are about the identity of the State of Israel, and what kind of Israel we want to see.

Um Estado judeu, um Estado democrático, um Estado liberal, tolerante e igualitário.

This is music to opposition ears, who say Benjamin Netanyahu's government is a threat to Israel's democracy, pointing to his efforts to curb the powers of the judicial system, and his refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry into the 7 October 2023 attacks on the grounds that the country's Supreme Court would be biased against him.

Eisenkot, junto com outros líderes da oposição, tem tentado afastar eleitores do partido de direita Likud, liderado por Netanyahu, prometendo tal investigação estatal, que uma pesquisa recente indica ter o apoio de mais de 70% dos israelenses judeus.

Image source, AFP via Getty ImagesImage caption, Protesters gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday to demand a state commission of enquiry into the October 7 attacks.

He has also vowed to enforce court rulings on drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into national military service - another measure that is popular with right-wing voters and opposition alike.

Benjamin Netanyahu reagiu com uma campanha focada na segurança de Israel, e um slogan central da campanha “No Surrender”.

He has repeatedly cast his rivals as soft on security, playing on the fears of some right-wing voters that Jewish opposition parties might ally with Israel's Arab parties to secure a majority, and suggesting this could compromise national security.

Around one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab - many of whom describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Foi a pior falha de segurança de Israel, mas três anos depois seu primeiro‑ministro está novamente concorrendo à reeleição como o único homem que pode manter Israel seguro.

If the army had woken him in time, it wouldn't have happened," Shlomi Bashar told me, one of several die-hard Netanyahu fans drinking in a basement café in Jerusalem's Mahane Yehuda market.

Ele tem certa responsabilidade, mas depois do 7 de outubro, ele mudou todo o Oriente Médio.

Netanyahu has been hammering home the message that Israel's wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, in the years after the 7 October attacks, have reduced existential threats to the country.

We need him to be re-elected so that he can finish this work," said Shlomi. "In my opinion, he is one of the best leaders in the world. Most of the world loves him and respects him, because he is a strong man and his ideas are correct.

Legenda da imagem, Shlomi Bashar é um apoiador de longa data de Netanyahu.

The prime minister has traditionally relied on a stable base of right-wing voters, but is projected to see a thinning of support in this election. Some voters may be slipping away to opposition parties like Eisenkot's.

Outros, incluindo alguns eleitores fervorosos do Likud com quem conversamos, disseram que os ataques de 7 de outubro os empurraram em direção a partidos ainda mais à direita.

Lt Col (Res) Eyal Hajbi, head of the regional civil defence unit in the Netanyahu stronghold of Sderot, right on the Gaza border, lost several friends and colleagues in the attacks.

He lights candles for them every day in his office, and told me he would be thinking about them when he cast his ballot on Tuesday.

Standing on a ridge overlooking the ruins of northern Gaza, he gestured to the wasteland where Israel's army has completely flattened the neighbourhoods of Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun.

Até onde eu me preocupo, depois de 7 de outubro, devemos exterminá-los todos," ele disse. "Eu mudei minha compreensão de Gaza. Antes, eu não teria dito que deveríamos destruí-la.

He told me he and his family had always voted Likud, but that now he was voting for the far-right party of Itamar Ben Gvir, Jewish Power.

My family has become more extreme than it ever was before," he said. "If once we deliberated over it, today we don't think twice; we vote.

Pesquisas sugerem que menos de 10% dos israelenses estão indecisos e que muito poucos desses estão considerando mudar entre partidos do governo e da oposição.

Ben Gvir, National Security minister in Netanyahu's coalition, has been reaching out to younger voters through headline-grabbing social media campaigns.

Uma pesquisa para um dos principais jornais de Israel, Yedioth Ahronoth, publicada em 9 de outubro, sugeriu que mais de 16% dos eleitores de primeira viagem em Israel escolheriam partidos de extrema-direita como o dele.

In Sderot, a group of 18 year olds from a nearby Jewish religious college told me their political views had been affected by the 7 October attacks far more than their parents.

All four teenagers were planning to vote for another far-right party, Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Today, the whole younger generation understands that peaceful paths will not work," Aviad Elmahach, one of the teenagers, told me. "Older adults, who are set in a fixed mindset, find [it] harder to change, but the youth understand that we need to be here with strength and an iron fist, which is the only way to win.

The lesson of 7 October, he said, was that Israel needed to be as forceful as possible in its relations with the Palestinians, more than 74,000 of whom have been killed by Israel in Gaza since then, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures are considered reliable by the UN.

The youth have a fresh new perspective that has not yet become entrenched in politics, and they understand very well why we're voting for Smotrich - it means holding the land with strength and giving [the Palestinians] nothing through peaceful gestures.

Image source, AFP via Getty ImagesImage caption, Israel's military campaign in Gaza has left much of the territory in ruins.

A little further south along the Gaza border are the kibbutzim that were overrun by gunmen during the Hamas attacks. They were renowned for decades as bastions of the Israeli left.

Entre eles está Nir Oz, onde 47 pessoas foram mortas e 76 foram tomadas como reféns naquele dia.

Três anos depois, os residentes estão voltando. Gal Pauker, de 26 anos, abriu um café de vinhos da sexta-feira na beira de seu pequeno vinhedo ao lado da fronteira da Gaza – algumas mesas de madeira dispostas sob lonas de lona bege para sombrear os clientes do forte sol do deserto.

His grandfather Gideon was killed during the 7 October attacks.

I asked Gal, and his mother Galia, whether the those attacks had shifted their political views.

Fonte da imagem, Getty Images. Legenda da imagem, Nir Oz foi um dos kibbutzim mais atingidos em 7 de outubro.

We need a change - we can't live with this government anymore," Galia said. "And I'm not talking about security, I'm talking first about humanity.

Having voted for centrist parties in the past, Galia says she's decided to vote for Eisenkot this time around, because "he's an ordinary guy and I hope he'll continue the way he's talking.

Seu filho Gal disse que estava decidindo entre Eisenkot e o partido Democrata de orientação à esquerda de Yair Golan, outro ex-general do exército.

I'm not naïve. I know there are a lot of more militant voices from young generations," he said. "I don't know if Eisenkot will be better than Golan in terms of security, but I think we have bigger problems: economics, social problems, education, health.

We didn't get new neighbours on October 7 - it was a major event, but didn't change how we see ourselves.

Threats to security versus threats to democracy - these are old political tramlines for Israeli voters, deepened by the 7 October attacks, and by four years of the most right-wing government in Israel's history.

Mas, em algumas das maiores preocupações internacionais, as diferenças entre governo e oposição não são tão amplas quanto podem parecer.

Gadi Eisenkot prometeu acabar com o domínio do Hamas em Gaza em 18 meses, seja por meio de um plano de paz liderado pelos EUA, ou por meio de 'military and operational capabilities.

All the main opposition leaders have voiced support for some form of Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank, which has expanded massively under the current government and is illegal under international law.

None have openly committed to the idea of full Palestinian statehood, something Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to block. Eisenkot has spoken about creating the conditions for "autonomy or state-minus" under ultimate Israeli security control.

Tuesday's vote could well end in deadlock, with neither government nor opposition able to form a majority without the support of Arab parties, which polls project could win enough seats to be kingmakers.

Todos, exceto um, dos partidos de oposição judaicos de Israel rejeitaram até agora trabalhar com qualquer um dos dois blocos de partidos árabes.

With Benjamin Netanyahu ramping up warnings of fresh threats from Iran, opposition voices warning of potential disruption to the ballot, and Israeli rights activists warning of a further spike in violence by settlers in the occupied West Bank, political instability at home could leave Israelis facing both a fresh test of their democracy, and fresh security threats.

Como partidos árabes podem manter o equilíbrio crítico de poder nas eleições israelenses.

Em números

• Entre eles está Nir Oz, onde 47 pessoas foram mortas e 76 foram tomadas como reféns naque