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Clique aqui para pesquisarpesquisarInscreva-seNotícias|HouthisA guerra total no Iêmen irá reacender à medida que os Houthis escalonam os ataques? Analistas dizem que a Arábia Saudita está fortalecendo sua posição com aliados regionais à medida que os Houthis escalonam seus ataques.
A 2022 truce led to the end of heavy fighting between the pro-Iranian Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, which had been ongoing since September 2014.
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Mas uma série de confrontos nos últimos 30 dias entre os dois lados – intensificando-se nos últimos 14 dias – levou a vítimas civis e militares e ameaçou reacender a guerra.
The Houthis have killed a number of civilians in a series of attacks on the government-controlled west coast port of al-Makha, also known as Mocha.
There was also an attack on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, which Yemen’s coastguard said killed six people and injured 10 others. The Houthis said the vessel was carrying weapons.
It followed the Houthis targeting Yemeni government military sites in eastern Yemen with drones and rockets, killing at least 30 government soldiers and causing further clashes.
The Houthis have also attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan oil refinery.
In response, Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), said the internationally -recognised government would not accept “a new truce that reproduces previous experiences”.
Mas ele também pareceu deixar espaço para uma saída política, dizendo que os hutis ainda poderiam "depor as armas, engajar-se na vida política e competir por meio da urna eleitoral em pé de igualdade com todos os outros iemenitas.
The Houthis seized the capital Sanaa in 2014 and have since fought a war with the government for control of the country.
Although the intensity of the war declined significantly after the 2022 truce, no comprehensive peace settlement followed.
The fragile status quo came under increasing pressure after the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28.
On July 13 , Yemeni government forces – which are backed by Saudi Arabia – attacked Sanaa airport, reportedly to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from landing.
The government accuses Iran of arming the Houthis.
O movimento rebelde respondeu lançando mísseis em direção à Arábia Saudita. Em seguida, em 20 de julho, os houthi anunciaram um bloqueio marítimo contra a Arábia Saudita, ameaçando as remessas de petróleo desviadas para o Mar Vermelho e atacando as instalações da Saudi Aramco em Jizan e Yanbu.
Is Saudi Arabia changing its approach.
As the attacks have intensified, Saudi Arabia has begun to take a more proactive approach to its security – both in Yemen and across the region, according to experts.
Some analysts believe the prospect of the Houthis ultimately blocking Bab al-Mandeb – the narrow strait connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean – may have helped push the Saudis to change their strategy.
Saudi Arabia was somewhat insulated from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz because it could use its East-West Pipeline to transport oil from fields in the east to the Red Sea, bypassing the strait.
If the Houthis were to severely restrict shipping through Bab al-Mandeb, that would threaten the Red Sea route for one of the world’s largest oil exporters.
No mês passado, Riad anunciou uma nova aliança internacional destinada a proteger o transporte marítimo no Mar Vermelho contra ataques dos Houthi. Dezenas de países foram convidados, com o reino afirmando que 13 concordaram em participar.
It is also deepening its security relationships with Pakistan and Turkiye through a new joint defence agreement, while Saudi coordination with Washington also appears to be strengthening.
The Saudi Defence Minister, Khalid bin Salman, recently met US Vice President JD Vance amid reports that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had secured US support for potential military action against the Houthis.
But in Yemen, the shift in the Saudi position may have been more visible when the Saudis intervened against the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) at the end of last year.
That allowed Yemen’s fractious anti-Houthi coalition to coalesce around the Yemeni government and present a more united front against the rebels.
Simon Mabon, professor of international relations at Lancaster University in the UK, said Saudi policy on the issue has changed significantly.
Mas em vez de tentar derrotar completamente os Houthis e retomar a capital Sanaa, Mabon disse que a Arábia Saudita e o governo iemenita agora parecem estar focados em empurrar as forças dos Houthis para longe da costa.
Could Pakistan and Turkiye be drawn into the war.
The Saudi-Pakistan-Turkiye agreement potentially raises the stakes of any further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry, reporting from Sanaa, said the latest attacks were being interpreted by some experts as a direct defiance of the new defence pact.
Pakistan has been directly affected by the recent escalation. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said three Pakistanis were killed and another person injured in a Houthi attack on a vessel in the Red Sea.
Mas especialistas dizem que o pacto de defesa não significa que tropas paquistanesas ou turcas se juntarão à guerra no Iêmen em nome de seu aliado.
Wolfgang Pusztai, a security policy and defence analyst, told Al Jazeera that the agreement so -far is “just ink on paper”.
Iran has long cultivated a so-called “axis of resistance” of governments and groups opposed to Israel and the United States, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, armed groups in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.
The Houthis supported Iran towards the end of March by launching attacks towards northern Israel and have since threatened to expand their operations in the Red Sea.
Last month, Iran reportedly asked the Houthis to prepare to close the Red Sea oil route if the US attacked Iranian power infrastructure.
Uma fonte próxima aos houthis disse à Reuters que mísseis e drones haviam sido posicionados perto do estreito de Bab al-Mandeb, nas terras altas do Iêmen, com vista para Hodeidah e o Golfo de Aden.
Mohammed Albasha, a Yemeni American analyst and former spokesperson for Yemen’s embassy in Washington, said the Houthis’ attacks on Saudi Arabia should therefore also be understood within the broader US-Iran confrontation.
Analysts say the crucial question is whether the latest attacks are intended to pressure the Saudi and Yemeni governments, or whether the Houthis believe they are simply taking the initiative in a new potential ground war.
The Houthis also say Saudi Arabia is using the port of al-Makah to reinforce and resupply government forces and believe Riyadh and its Yemeni allies are preparing an offensive against Houthi-held territory.
Nadwa Al-Dawsari, Associate Fellow at the Middle East Institute, said those fears may be fuelling the current escalation.
Em última análise, ela disse, os hutis estão tentando moldar as regras de qualquer confronto futuro de modo que “se a escalada ocorrer, ela aconteça nos próprios termos deles”.
While a Saudi-led ground offensive is not inevitable, the Houthis have also shown over the past decade that they cannot be defeated by air power alone, Mabon said.
A Saudi-backed offensive led by Yemeni government forces is still more plausible than a large Saudi ground deployment, he added.
The consequences of major fighting on the ground between the two sides will inevitably mean that civilians will suffer most.
Fontes
Informação baseada em material público de Al Jazeera, reescrito pela redação ULTRA NOTÍCIAS.
