Brazil’s neck-and-neck election offers test for growing pro-Trump Latin American bloc

Presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidato à reeleição pelo Partido dos Trabalhadores, participa de um comício em São Gonçalo, Brasil. Fotografia: Tita Barros/Reuters.

A pesquisa de domingo coloca o presidente de esquerda Lula contra o filho de um ex‑presidente de extrema‑direita condenado por ter organizado um golpe.

Prefer the Guardian on GoogleShortly after his controversial speech to the United Nations general assembly in September, Donald Trump gathered a dozen like-minded Latin American leaders and boasted that rightwing candidates had won all seven presidential elections held in the region since he began his second term.

View image in fullscreenA giant balloon of Donald Trump holding Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during a Flávio Bolsonaro rally in São Paulo. Photograph: Miguel Schincariol/AFP/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenDonald Trump departs a meeting of the multinational coalition Shield of the Americas on the sidelines at the UN general assembly in New York.

Fotografia: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP Essas vitórias eleitorais – e a tomada dos EUA na Venezuela após a captura de Nicolás Maduro – deixaram apenas seis países latino-americanos sob governos de esquerda: pesos pesados regionais Brasil e México, pequenos Uruguai e Guatemala, e os regimes isolados Cuba e Nicarágua.

On Sunday, Brazilians go to the polls in a presidential election that many believe will determine more than Latin America’s largest country’s fate for the next four years.

View image in fullscreenSupporters Lula gather at a political rally in São Paulo. Photograph: Brian Snyder/ReutersGiven Mexico’s geographic proximity and unique economic relationship with the US, analysts see Brazil as perhaps the last country in the region still capable of saying “no” to Trump’s whims – something that could change dramatically depending on the election result.

Polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old leftist incumbent who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the far-right senator son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Ver imagem em tela cheia Presidente Claudia Sheinbaum conduz sua coletiva matinal de imprensa no Palácio Nacional em Cidade do México, marcando dois anos no cargo.

Fotografia: Luis Marin/Clasos/Zuma Press/Shutterstock “O México continuará relevante, e sua presidente, Claudia Sheinbaum, é uma das líderes de esquerda mais populares.”.

But if Flávio wins, it would be a real blow to the left and a major boost to the far-right agenda globally,” added Telles.

View image in fullscreenA street vendor sells campaign flags of the presidential candidates Bolsonaro and Lula. Photograph: Eraldo Peres/APLula and Bolsonaro differ sharply on the US, including over what has become Trump’s main foreign policy for the region: the so-called “war on drugs” used to justify dozens of airstrikes on boats that have killed more than 230 people and joint operations involving US military personnel on land.

While Bolsonaro has pledged to join the Shield of the Americas and to follow an “iron fist” approach to crime, Lula has raised concerns about sovereignty and said it is “sad to see the inferiority complex of Latin American presidents” who are part of the Trump-created coalition.

A victory for Bolsonaro in Brazil, he said, would be used “triumphantly” by Trump for producing an “almost completely aligned region”.

At the latest Shield of the Americas meeting, Trump made clear that it was not all about security. The US president also referred to the “tremendous natural wealth” of Latin American countries, which he said could not “be taken over by hostile outside powers” – widely understood as a reference to China.

View image in fullscreenPosters for Lula in the streets of the Cajazeiras neighborhood in Salvador, Bahia state. Photograph: Amanda Cotrim/AFP/Getty ImagesPrivileged access to Brazil’s rare earths and critical minerals was one of the conditions Washington imposed in exchange for not applying tariffs, which Lula rejected.

Bolsonaro, por outro lado, ofereceu esses recursos naturais como a “solução” para ajudar os EUA a “quebrar sua dependência da China”.

As in recent elections across Latin America, the race includes other candidates but is polarised between two leading candidates. Lula and Bolsonaro have alternated as frontrunners in the final stretch, making the outcome unpredictable; if neither wins 50% plus one of the votes, there will be a runoff on 25 October.

A única candidatura anterior de Bolsonaro a um cargo executivo no governo terminou de forma ignóni quando ele ficou em quarto lugar na corrida de prefeito do Rio em 2016.

Mas analistas dizem que há várias razões pelas quais um congressista mais conhecido pelo nome de família e pelas acusações de corrupção – algumas arquivadas, outras ainda sob investigação – emergiu como um sério concorrente de um presidente de três mandatos.

Unemployment, poverty and inflation have fallen, and average incomes have risen, but so has household debt – something many attribute to online betting, which the older Bolsonaro left unregulated and Lula banned days before the vote.

The incumbent’s campaign has also been hit by corruption allegations – still under investigation – involving his son and a former aide, while a scandal involving supreme court justices with no connection to Lula may have rubbed off on the president.

View image in fullscreenBolsonaro waves at supporters during a campaign rally at the São Paulo Municipal Market in São Paulo. Photograph: Miguel Schincariol/AFP/Getty ImagesMany therefore see Bolsonaro’s support as coming both from a simple transfer of his father’s voter base and from an anti-Lula vote.

View image in fullscreenThe presidential candidate for the Social Democratic party (PSD), Ronaldo Caiado, speaks at a press conference in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday.

Fotografia: Andre Coelho/EPA A atriz Docy Moreira, 59, votará em Lula. Em 2018, ela ficou tão desapontada com a eleição de Jair Bolsonaro que decidiu deixar sua cidade natal, Belo Horizonte, onde dois terços dos eleitores apoiaram o líder de extrema-direita.

She Googled which cities had given Bolsonaro the lowest share of the vote, chose one about 1,550 miles away and moved north to Luís Correia, in Piauí.

She eventually returned home, and most of her family will now vote for Bolsonaro’s son. Still, Moreira remains confident Lula will win.